datagott > gezondheid.* > gezondheid.medisch

skybuck2000 (19.03.2020, 09:59)
De waarheid in Nederland is als volgt, waarschijnlijk is zelfs deze informatie inmiddels al weer achterhaald, sinds een dag, de ontwikkelingen gaan razendsnel:

1. Minder dan 300 vrije intensive care units/bedden zijn beschikbaar op een bevolking van 17 miljoen. De rest zijn al bezet, in total zijn er 1150 ICU units.

2. Verdrinkingsdood in eigen long vloeistof ligt op de loer. ICU kan helpen dit te voorkomen ?!?

3. Verspreiding van virus gaat exponentieel ! Deze factor lijkt 1.3 te zijn.

4. Uit cijfers uit Italie blijkt dat 1 op 10 besmettings gevallen ICU nodig heeft om te overleven.

5. Nederland heeft 171 mensen op ICU liggen vanwege Corona.

6. Geschat aantal besmettingen ligt op 6000. Bekende besmettingen zijn 2051.

7. Virus blijft in leven 74 uur op overvlaktes, metaal, plastic, zelfs karton.

8. (Onbekend is of virus gaat muteren en wat daar weer de gevolgen van zouden kunnen zijn).

Dan nu een realistische berekening hoe dit virus/corona/situatie zich gaat ontwikkelen de komende dagen vanaf 19 maart(maand 3) 2020:

Dag Datum Bekende Besmettingen ICU Opname:
1 19/3/2020 2051.00 * 1.3 = 2666.30 171.00 * 1.3 = 222.30
2 20/3/2020 2666.30 * 1.3 = 3466.19 222.30 * 1.3 = 288.99
3 21/3/2020 3466.19 * 1.3 = 4506.05 288.99 * 1.3 = 375.68
4 22/3/2020 4506.05 * 1.3 = 5857.86 375.68 * 1.3 = 488.39
5 23/3/2020 5857.86 * 1.3 = 7615.21 488.39 * 1.3 = 634.91
6 24/3/2020 7615.21 * 1.3 = 9899.78 634.91 * 1.3 = 825.38
7 25/3/2020 9899.78 * 1.3 = 12869.72 825.38 * 1.3 = 1072.99
8 26/3/2020 12869.72 * 1.3 = 16730.63 1072.99 * 1.3 = 1394.89
9 27/3/2020 16730.63 * 1.3 = 21749.82 1394.89 * 1.3 = 1813.36
10 28/3/2020 21749.82 * 1.3 = 28274.77 1813.36 * 1.3 = 2357.38
11 29/3/2020 28274.77 * 1.3 = 36757.20 2357.38 * 1.3 = 3064.59
12 30/3/2020 36757.20 * 1.3 = 47784.37 3064.59 * 1.3 = 3983.97
13 31/3/2020 47784.37 * 1.3 = 62119.68 3983.97 * 1.3 = 5179.16
14 1/4/2020 62119.68 * 1.3 = 80755.58 5179.16 * 1.3 = 6732.91
15 2/4/2020 80755.58 * 1.3 = 104982.26 6732.91 * 1.3 = 8752.78
16 3/4/2020 104982.26 * 1.3 = 136476.94 8752.78 * 1.3 = 11378.62
17 4/4/2020 136476.94 * 1.3 = 177420.03 11378.62 * 1.3 = 14792.21
18 5/4/2020 177420.03 * 1.3 = 230646.03 14792.21 * 1.3 = 19229.87
19 6/4/2020 230646.03 * 1.3 = 299839.85 19229.87 * 1.3 = 24998.83
20 7/4/2020 299839.85 * 1.3 = 389791.80 24998.83 * 1.3 = 32498.48
21 8/4/2020 389791.80 * 1.3 = 506729.34 32498.48 * 1.3 = 42248.03

Ik heb dit even met de calculator in windows uitgerekend. Ik kan er ook even een computer programma voor schrijven die dit automatisch uitrekent en zodat de factor gewijzigd kan worden mocht deze in de nabije toekomst veranderingen.

Hoe het ook zij het is duidelijk dat er een capaciteits probleem gaat ontstaan indien de verspreiding/besmettings snelheid zoals het nu gaat doorgaat.

Over slechts 3 dagen is de maximum capaciteit al bereikt en gaat Nederland medische gezien in een crisis situatie terecht komen waarin artsen moeten gaan beslissen over leven en dood, wie wordt gered en wie niet.

Ik hoop dat alle Nederlands door middel van dit bericht beseffen wat ze boven het hoofd hangt en hoe belangrijk het is om verspreiding proberen te voorkomen.

Het omlaag brengen van deze factor kan helpen maar gaat het probleem waarschijnlijk niet echt oplossen. Ik zal straks even een computer programma schrijven die zo een tabel kan genereren mocht de factor omlaag gaan van 1.3 naar 1.2 ofzo.

1.3 is ook wel 33% nieuwe besmettings gevallen.

Groetjes voor nu,
Skybuck Flying ! ;) =D
skybuck2000 (19.03.2020, 17:41)
Ik heb een application/grafiek geschreven om de "spread factor" zoals ik het noem nader te bestuderen, dit is ook wel bekend als "growth factor".

Deze application kan hier gedownload worden:

[..]

Ga naar de betreffende versie folder bijvoorbeeld version 0.01:

Kies dan of je ingepakt of uitgepakt wilt downloaden.

Bijvoorbeeld zipped of unzipped.

Download dan de betreffende bestanden en pak uit indien nodig.

Of run exe direct.

Deze software zou in principe moeten werken op windows xp, windows 7, windows vista en windows 10.

Mocht er een probleem zijn laat het me weten.

Er is ook een handleiding door mij geschreven die nog het een en ander uitlegt deze staat in "manual.txt".

De "spread factor trackbar" stelt de gebruiker instaat om interactief te zien hoe de grafiek verandert als dit wordt aangepast.

De spread factor kan gaan van 1.0 tot 3.0 in stapjes van 0.01.

Tevens kan ook de "base infections" "base intensive care units" en "base deaths" aangepast worden.

Dit is een uitgangspunt. Vanaf deze waardes kan de toekomst berekent worden.

Het aantal dagen dat de applicatie de toekomst inrekent wordt aangegeven met "compute days ahead".

De application neemt simpelweg deze waardes en vermenigvuldigt deze waardes steeds met de spread factor.

Precies zoals in de eerste posting omschreven tabel.

Wees een beetje voorzicht met het aantal dagen, wordt deze te groot ingesteld dan kan de computer het niet berekenen en overflowt deze. Het programma detecteert dit en voorkomt een crash en zal waarschuwen om de laatst veranderde setting aan te passen.

Success met deze charts !
En ik hoop dat het jullie helpt om het beleid goed te kunnen bepalen !
Groetjes Skybuck Flying !
Rink (20.03.2020, 22:54)
Op 19-3-2020 om 8:59 schreef skybuck2000:
[..]
> 14 1/4/2020 62119.68 * 1.3 = 80755.58 5179.16 * 1.3 = 6732.91
> 15 2/4/2020 80755.58 * 1.3 = 104982.26 6732.91 * 1.3 = 8752.78
> 16 3/4/2020 104982.26 * 1.3 = 136476.94 8752.78 * 1.3 = 11378.62
> 17 4/4/2020 136476.94 * 1.3 = 177420.03 11378.62 * 1.3 = 14792.21
> 18 5/4/2020 177420.03 * 1.3 = 230646.03 14792.21 * 1.3 = 19229.87
> 19 6/4/2020 230646.03 * 1.3 = 299839.85 19229.87 * 1.3 = 24998.83
> 20 7/4/2020 299839.85 * 1.3 = 389791.80 24998.83 * 1.3 = 32498.48
> 21 8/4/2020 389791.80 * 1.3 = 506729.34 32498.48 * 1.3 = 42248.03
> Ik heb dit even met de calculator in windows uitgerekend. Ik kan er ook even een computer programma voor schrijven die dit automatisch uitrekent en zodat de factor gewijzigd kan worden mocht deze in de nabije toekomst veranderingen.


Je kunt dit natuurlijk ook even in Excel zetten.
[..]
skybuck2000 (22.03.2020, 09:02)
On Friday, March 20, 2020 at 9:54:07 PM UTC+1, Rink wrote:
> Op 19-3-2020 om 8:59 schreef skybuck2000:
>> Je kunt dit natuurlijk ook even in Excel zetten. Ik heb geen excell..... ik had wel een of andere chinese versie, maar die vond ik niet zo fijn... die stak zichzelf steeds in task schedular en daar had ik genoeg van ! ;) omzichzelf op te starten ofzoiets, misschien spyware wie zal het zeggen.


Er is wel google docs ofzo.

Tabelltje gaat nog, maar charts is toch een andere zaak, die axis/assen nemen super snel toe in omvang... deze delphi software past het keurige netjes aan das niet makkelijk.

er is ook ergens een domos site ofzo maar dat werkt van geen flikker voor de assen of ik weeet niet hoe ik ze krijg aangepast.

Delphi is nummer 1 fuck the rest.

Doei,
Skybuck.
skybuck2000 (28.03.2020, 04:00)
(Helaas dit keer rechtstreek in engels, wat bij mij een stuk minder is):

Corona Update 1 on 28 march 2020:

Hello Followship of the Corona Ring =D

I will give you a hopefully thruthfull update on the Corona Virus:

New information that is acquired from around the World and The Netherlands:

0. Death growth rate in Netherlands last week rises from 1.32 to 1.36 now at 1.34

1. Corona virus has spread to cats and dogs and may infect cattle/cows/pigs/chickens soon. We may face a food crisis soon.

2. Corona virus can survive much longer than the 74 hours, I think it was something like 20 days if there is enough corona
virus. So be carefull handling dead infected bodies. (Corona virus seems to half in life time or so, halving speed is unknown to me at this time)

3. Sneezing can travel up to 3 meters, so the "social distancing" of 1.5 meters seems inadequate/insufficient. Also wind
can blow it further.

4. Insects like flies can theoretically acquire corona on their feeth. My worrie is about infected dead bodies/corpes or
dead animals lieing in nature and fly larves popping on it and spreading the corona virus perhaps in spring or summer time.

5. Strangely enough hot places like Australia and Africa are now "hit" by Corona too. My hope was temperature would kill
of the corona virus, perhaps it's surviving a cool places, this needs to be investigated more.

6. Old human males die twice as much as old human females. Why this is is unknown. Males smoke more ? Worse health at old age ?

7. Organ transplants from infected dead is too risky for surgeons so it's not being done.

8. Death growth rate has slightly increased in the Netherlands.

9. Infection growth rate is ramping up in other provinces of the Netherlands, mostly north/west.

10. Carnaval/parties/festivities were most likely responsely for early spread of corona virus in south part of the country.

11. There is speak of 60.000.000.000 euros injection into economy/borrowing of money for Dutch economy alone I believe.

One calculation showed that the cost of life for old people is now 1.000.000 euros per life year per person. This has me wondering
if we are over reacting. However I expect much more loss of life, so this figure per person will go down, way down.

12. Multiple people have been jailed for coughing or threatening to cough in somebodies face. Jail time is up to 10 weeks.

13. Fines have been introduced for not distancing enough for citizins can be 400 euros.

14. Parties/gathering/grouping of people of 3 or more is now disallowed.

15. Drones are used to warn people on beaches to distance from each other.

16. Stores/shops are required to implement social distancing measures or face fines of 4000 euros or closure.

17. Barbershops shut down. All human contact shops shut down. Perfume shops shutdown. Beauty and tatoo shops shut down.
Fitness shops shutdown. Cafees/Discos shutdown. Sexclubs shut down. Casinos shutdown.

18. Pizza delivery still going strong ;) :) Shhhh :)

19. Food markets shut down.

20. All kinds of sports and related events shutting down. Basically all events banned till 1 juli.

21. Central-exam for teenagers aborted.

22. Schools shutdown or closing down.

23. Some universities shutdown.

24. Some medical posts shutdown.

25. Health care for older persons at home going down or shutdown.

26. Dutch Politics mostly shutdown except for corona.

27. European Union Politics tries to video conference instead of physical gathering.

28. Virus is mutating changing adepting. Possibly multiple versions. Strong one in Italy. Possibly weaker one in Germany.

29. Firm in Europe coerced to give recipe for testing for corona virus. Dutch goverment wants to produce more corona tests
but is running into technical issues.

30. Prime Minister of England is said to be infected with corona virus. First world/country leader to be confirmed infected.
Nothing is known about the state of Merkel or at least it wasn't in the news, she isolated herself sooner than Boris in UK.
Unknown is what Boris is going to do :) He said he wants to continue his work.

31. Prince Charles of England also infected, may have attracted infection from Monaco or France ?

32. King William-Alexander of the Dutch/Netherlands visited two hospitals with infected people/corona. Why he does this is unknown
to me. It's seems dumb/foolish/risky, but he still does it. Maybe he has received a secret immune treatment ?! It's somewhat
suspicious ! ;) :)

33. Alcohol forbidden in South-Africa, goverment is afraid for riots of poor drunk(?) people. Corona hit there too. Homeless
people are to be moved to shelters and are forcefully moved elsewhere by police/military.

34. India went into total lockdown. This might effect supply chain for rest of World.

35. China is secretly cooperating and using slave and forced labor from North Korea, this has been going on for quite some time
to manufacture/produce goods, China seems re-infected with corona virus. Numbers from China are doubtfull and might be unreliable.

36. United States hit hard by Corona virus and is ramping up infections quickly. Democrats worry twice or three times as much about
Corona than Republicans. This divide may be hurting the USA to combat this virus effectively. 2 trillion dollar money borrowing
introduced to be injected into USA economy.

37. Corona found in sewers. Unsure is if water supply will be effected by Corona Virus.

38. Unknown is if fish and other sea/marine life in oceans or ponds or fish tanks can become infected with Corona Virus.
I can vaguely remember mysterous deaths of dolfins. Perhaps these dolfin deaths were related to corona.

39. Exception for church/religious things in the Netherlands like wedding and funerals, then groups are allowed ? Strange.

Finally my personal advise to those that do not want to be infected with corona virus or it's negative consequences:

1. Isolate yourself completely from other people if possible, or isolate your family completed from other people.

2. Use delivery services to deliver food and other products to your door if possible.

3. Always wash hands before and after dinner and/or touching anything that was imported into the house/living space.

4. Do not touch eyes, lips, face, nose. This is the entry point for corona virus. Unknown is if sex spreads it too. I would assume
yes, but have not seen anything about it on tv or very little. Do not have sex with strangers. Do not go outside of the house to go
have sex, too dangerous right now.

5. Children can probably spread the virus too, it may be on their hands. Keep children inside.

6. Immune people can still spread the virus, it may be on their hands and fingers as well.

7. If you do go to work demand protective gear, like gloves and possibly full body suits and masks if available. However
care must be taken to handle these properly. I don't think it will help much, once the gear is infected than what ? Wash it maybe ?
Gear would have to be thrown out on a daily basis, this might get expensive, recycling it after 30 days of inactivity might cut
costs. However this 30 days is an assumption of when virus fully died out, there is no proof that this is actually the case.

8. Wash your cloths regularly if you do go to work. If washing takes too long, perhaps heating them shortly in dryer might help
to kill off any corona virusses. I do not believe the virus can grow without a host, so at least it shouldn't grow if heated up outside
of the body.

9. Some say that hot drinks and hot baths can help to fight off this virus, it's worth a try. Drinking fluids can definetly help
wash down the virus into the stomach where it will be destroyed.

10. I do not recommend buying masks, the chance of scammers trying to profit from re-selling infected masks is too high.

11. Caution with people/deals/suggestions in general. Lots of criminals/scammer are trying to profit from this crisis.
Blood tricks at doors, deals selling non existing masks. Disappearing stock/transports.

12. Politicians may have to start thinking about the economy consequences/cost of Corona Virus if unable to do so start talking to
economists and these economists will also have to research these effects. The danger of mass recession and perhaps even
hyper-inflation might occur, possibly even followed by war cause of lost money/buying power.

13. Advise to investors don't buy stocks, business is going down. Bitcoin might surge once hyper inflation happens.

14. Don't visit old people, stay away from old people, they seem to die the most right now, 50% of old people death is unknown
if they had any other diseases, the other 50% had other diseases which accelerated death, like blood vessels/heart (fat?)
or lung problems and also diabetes.

Recommendations for the future:

15. Do stock-pile up if possible. I suspect a food crisis will happen as well. Patotoes/vegetables will probably not be infected/affected
by corona virus, but anything meat related will probably become a crisis. Unknown is what happens if farmers become infected/ill.

16. Keep cats/dogs in house at all times if possible, keep them on a leash. Avoid visiting farms with dogs. Farmers are advised to
keep non-farm animals away from farm as much as possible, put up signs warning people to stay away with their pets.

17. Researches/biologists should capture "wild animals" like goose, birds, dear, foxes, rabbits/bunnies, rats, mice and inspect
them for corona virus. As well as farm animals like pig, cows, chickens.

18. Zoo should be avoided as well, possibly those animals might get infected as well.

19. Sea/marine life should also be inspected for presence of Corona Virus.

Strategical Analysis:

20. Corona Virus is Stealth Virus (could be engineered) hard to see/detect.

21. Corona Virus is Spreading Rapidly enough to cause millions of deaths, mostly among old people.

22. Corona Virus is Internal messing/confusing/persuading/reprogramming immune system to attack human body/lung cells.

23. Corona Virus is aggressive also attacks lung cells.

24. Corona Virus is multi-species/trans-species/cross-species, spreading to different species, for now seems to be limited to mamals ? Animals with lungs.

25. Corona Virus is dead basically, doesn't life, has no brain, has no heart, has no blood, has no neurons, has no legs to walk on, doesn't spread itself.

Speculative:

26. Corona Virus might have come from outer space from recent comets, asteroids, intersteller objects and dust from these objects. Currently
china claims and other reseacher claim it's from batmans with one unknown species in between bat and human, 95% certainty. Thus my hypothesis leaves
room for 5% chance or so. If it did come from outer space it might have it ocean life first, perhaps whales or dolfins. There have been report about
very strange mass dolfin deaths.

27. Corona Virus might be attacking the more intelligent age groups first, the elder, or this may be a side effect of weaker immune systems of elder.
It may still mutate to attack the younger ones, it may acquire these genes/RNA from other viruses like the recent virus in mexico which caused
infant head deformities, zikka virus ?

Fear of future:

28. Corona Virus may be "searching" for better code/mutations from itself or other viruses. Mutation risk. More effect on young people.

29. Corona Virus may start fighting itself as it tries to fight for host-space. Side effects of this fight on human body is unknown.
But may cause more severe damage to human cells as well.

30. More animals/mamals will be affected, wild life and farm life and also pets. Loss of control of animal virus spread. Pets
may eat infected wild life.

31. Spread of virus via insects.

32. Spread of virus via food chain.

33. Spread of virus via fish/oceans.

34. Economic recession, job loss and hyper inflation.

35. Long term nature of virus, freezed into deepfreezers, anual reoccurence.

36. Failure to develop working vaccin, some anti-virus companies might be fake.

37. Fear of mass death:

Finally my application charts so far have predicted the growth rate of infections, icu and death extremely accurately.
One day should be added to "compute ahead days" to be a little bit more sure about real prediction, since chart
starts from the base at day 1 and only starts computing from day 2.

So far subtracting "immune" from infections is not necessary since pool of to-be-infected people is so large that the immune
number does not seem to play any role at all for now. Also deaths do not need to be subtracted cause of low numbers so far compared
to total population. Infected dead can also continue to infect and thus should not be subtracted lightly, only burried and burned
numbers may be subtracted. So far those numbers are unknown. Also Netherlands does not really track immune or recovered numbers.

The death numbers and associated growth rate is mostly reliably right now, by adjusting death growth rate/spread factor to match
the graph to real world numbers are better understanding can be reached for the real growth factor/spread factor of the virus.
So far it seems to have slightly increased in the Netherlands. This may be incidents or it's because closing down shops
and such has forced people into smaller spaces, as my game already demonstrated this is a bad idea, people need more space
to stay out of each others way and to not infect each other. Reducing space for people is thus not recommended for now.
Strangely enough the opposite seems to be happening and space is reduced. It's still too early to tell if social distancing
and shutdown/lock down is working but so far I am very skeptical. It's still one week for evaluation and then maybe one more
and maybe then even one more. True evaluation might be two or three weeks away. By then it might be to late to do anything
reasonable against the spread, but then it might be spread to much to stop it or to slow it down effectively. Time will tell.

For now my final prediction/conclusion is we are facing death, doom, doomsday, darkness, dark times ahead, economic disaster,
(It's almost like the 10 plagues of egypt ?! Could this be a civilization ending event ? A civilization killer ?)
animal death/feminine/hunger, hyper inflation, psychological hardship, perhaps even war though for now the spirit to help
each other and inform each other and get through this together seems to be high. This is already a somewhat painfull situation
and it will become more painfull. Psychological pain management is also advised. Think about pain. Pain is a bad advisor.
Do think about other forms of pain and other people's pain. This is not only about the possibly pain the elder face.
Elders are trying to lock themselfes up, isolate themselfes, family members do try and visit them for emotional reasons, birthdays
and sometimes for help both ways. This may lead to infections over time of the elder if it continues and is worrisome. However elder people can be intelligent have resources and might also benefit others.

Bye for now,
Skybuck Flying.
skybuck2000 (31.03.2020, 23:45)
Kom toevallig dit bericht tegen:

[..]

"Zeer waarschijnlijk zijn alle patiŽnten in Wuhan (provincie Hubei) besmet geraakt op een lokale vis - en zeevruchtenmarkt"

Dit bevestigt mijn dolfijnen hypothese perfect wat mij betreft.

Veel waarschijnlijker dan dat vreemde vleermuizen verhaal.

Groetjes,
Skybuck !
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